The latest US inflation and labour market data make it more likely that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting rates in September. Recent Fed meeting minutes also indicate a rate cut being ‘likely’.
“Futures markets are pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut with about a 25% chance of 50 basis points,” said Alan Wynne, Global Investment Strategist at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management. “We think investors should dust off their rate cutting cycle playbooks to position their portfolios. Like a well-balanced playbook, there’s two sides to consider: offense and defense.”
As defense, Wynne suggests investors to consider “moving out of excess cash and extend duration by buying bonds”. For the offense, he highlights three areas: Refinancing, Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A).
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