A monetarist perspective suggests equity markets may struggle in the coming months due to persistently weak money growth. An analysis by NS Partners, an affiliate of Connor, Clark & Lunn Financial Group Ltd., one of the largest private, independently held asset management firms in Canada, found: “Global six-month real narrow money momentum recovered from a low in September 2023 into Q2 2024 but has since moved sideways at a weak level by historical standards. Based on a normal six to 12-month lead, this suggests below-trend economic growth through Q2 2025, at least.”
If money growth does not improve, the economic backdrop could remain challenging, weighing on corporate earnings and valuations.
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